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Discussion Starter · #1 ·
My supplier said that they are prbably going to raise shinlge prices another 10% in March, do you know if they are raising prices in your area?
 

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Prices here went up 10-15% accross the board here in january, im mainly talking about roof tiles and slates as shingles are not used much here.
I tend to play my suppliers against each other to get the price i want and have found that shopping around has reduced my prices by the increase!
Cheers
Dave
 

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Discussion Starter · #5 ·
Compared to 9 months ago

I had to update pricing for phase 3 of some apartments we’ve been working over a period of 3 years.

I compared my materials to 9 months ago and they’ve gone up 50%. Now I have to break the news to the manger.

My supplier says another increase of about 7% is coming the first week in March.
 

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Watch out, Obama's Repave America plan will severly hurt asphalt prices. I was talking with a certaitneed rep (not a local guy but a higher up corporate guy), not the suppliers who give alot of false information. I think I got the real skinny from him.

Essentially he explained how in 2007 the US government mandated "cokers" be applied to refineries to produce less sulfur in the gas and reduce emmisions. I suppose these cokers are super expensive or they'd have done them sooner, because I am told as a result of the cokers less asphalt is actually produced. To those who don't know Asphalt is a by product from actually producing gasoline. Gasonline sell for more per measurement than asphalt so the refineries are producing as much gasoline as possible.

To add insult to injury 85% of aspahlt produced goes to roads. 15% goes to roofing and other. Let me say that again 85% roads, 15% other. We are the other, and only a fraction of the other. Now back to the repave america plan to stimulate the economy. Sounds like a great idea actually since it worked for Ike when he built the interstate e-ways. However it's going to hurt roofing.

Here is my prediction for residential roofing... Write this down, I want it on record... oh wait I'm writing it in this post, never mind :) Asphalt based roof shingles will continue to rise to a point where the synthetic alternatives like ecostar, davinci, and lamarite become very feasable alternatives. Metal is also currently gaining popularity and I expect that to take a spike upwards as well. In addition the increased production of these alternatives will lower the price. This will happen in the not so distant future, maybe 2-3 more years.

My prediction for commercial roofing is not anything astounding, and has been going on since the 90's. Asphalt roofing is losing market share year after year to single ply. The rising asphalt prices will just super charge that loss of market share. It already happened to us last year putting single ply as our primary roof covering for low slope and modified as our secondary.

Start gearing up for the changes now guys, it's coming for sure. Mark my words!


As for the March increases I am having 5 jobs delivered this week which will be neatly tarped and waiting for us when the weather breaks above 40 consistantly.
 

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With the falling oil prices there should be more asphalt on the market as the coaking process is expensive and only profitable when crude is selling for high prices. The Repave America Plan will unfortunately keep asphalt in high demand thus driving up the prices.
For anyone interested I did find a link explaining oil refining and coaking process. http://science.howstuffworks.com/oil-refining5.htm
I also agree that asphalt based products will continue to rise in the future as the world is consuming much more asphalt and is not finding any new major sites for future development.
 

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Discussion Starter · #10 ·
Decra

Watch out, Obama's Repave America plan will severly hurt asphalt prices. I was talking with a certaitneed rep (not a local guy but a higher up corporate guy), not the suppliers who give alot of false information. I think I got the real skinny from him.

Essentially he explained how in 2007 the US government mandated "cokers" be applied to refineries to produce less sulfur in the gas and reduce emmisions. I suppose these cokers are super expensive or they'd have done them sooner, because I am told as a result of the cokers less asphalt is actually produced. To those who don't know Asphalt is a by product from actually producing gasoline. Gasonline sell for more per measurement than asphalt so the refineries are producing as much gasoline as possible.

To add insult to injury 85% of aspahlt produced goes to roads. 15% goes to roofing and other. Let me say that again 85% roads, 15% other. We are the other, and only a fraction of the other. Now back to the repave america plan to stimulate the economy. Sounds like a great idea actually since it worked for Ike when he built the interstate e-ways. However it's going to hurt roofing.

Here is my prediction for residential roofing... Write this down, I want it on record... oh wait I'm writing it in this post, never mind :) Asphalt based roof shingles will continue to rise to a point where the synthetic alternatives like ecostar, davinci, and lamarite become very feasable alternatives. Metal is also currently gaining popularity and I expect that to take a spike upwards as well. In addition the increased production of these alternatives will lower the price. This will happen in the not so distant future, maybe 2-3 more years.

My prediction for commercial roofing is not anything astounding, and has been going on since the 90's. Asphalt roofing is losing market share year after year to single ply. The rising asphalt prices will just super charge that loss of market share. It already happened to us last year putting single ply as our primary roof covering for low slope and modified as our secondary.

Start gearing up for the changes now guys, it's coming for sure. Mark my words!


As for the March increases I am having 5 jobs delivered this week which will be neatly tarped and waiting for us when the weather breaks above 40 consistantly.
What do you think about steel shingles like Decra?
They have a granual coating. The color samples don't look so hot.
 

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Grumpy,

I was getting this information last summer during the rapid escalation of prices.

I believe your analysis is pretty much dead on. So, it really does beg the question of Certainteed and the rest of the comp shingle manufacturing community . . . .who currently have no other options . . . .

What direction are they taking the product line? I can't believe they would sit on their hands and wait until demand drops off the cliff before introducing a replacement.

Anyone care to speculate?
 

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Tamko has metal shingles and synethtic shingles for years now.

Has anyone else noticed that while the standard 3 tabs and architecturals are jumping through the roof, the luxury shingles like grand manors haven't changed a bit. Makes me woner what kind of markup they have on those shingles!
 

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I have heard from more than one source that the major manufacturers are eliminating their strip shingle lines. GAF has already ceased production on 20 year 3tabs and 25 year 3tabs are next. I say great...do it. Make 30 year lams the economical roof with starter and manufactured hip/ridge.

In Feb 2008 20 year 3 tab shingles were selling for $31 per square in Tyler TX. 30 year lams were $41.00. Today, the 3tab sells for $72.00 and the 30 year for $90.00. HD and Lowes still have them for a bit cheaper, but that's what the supply houses are trying to get. Amazing.
 
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